- Government doesn't have enough dosh to pay for stuff, so will need to borrow more on 3 Nov, beyond a pre-agreed debt ceiling.
- So either the US defaults (i.e. stops paying for things like interest obligations on previous borrowings), or it raises the debt ceiling.
- Only way to avoid default is if Congress agrees to raise or suspend the debt ceiling.
- Republicans don't want to raise debt ceiling, i.e. they want smaller and not bigger government.
- So they are proposing prioritising payment of some (but not all) obligations (i.e. debt service, military and some welfare), or a raising of the debt ceiling in exchange for a reduction in social spending (Medicare, food stamps, social security).
- The Democrats simply want the debt ceiling raised.
- Yep - looks like it.
- Post Communist countries roared in the 2000's, but, apart from Poland, all were hit hard by 2008 crisis.
- Finally signs of decent rebound, with Hungary & Romania taking the lead.
- The ability of a government to tax and spend in order to influence the economy.
- An expansionary fiscal policy means either lower tax, higher spending, or a cocktail of the two.
- A contractionary fiscal policy (" tightening") means, yep, you got it, either higher tax, lower spending, or a cocktail of the two.
- Deepest recession since 1930s persists.
- Due to end of commodities boom, fiscal mismanagement and political infighting hindering reform.
- Political crisis over corruption at state-owned petrol company continues unabated.
- Jul-Sep still robust - at annualised 6.9%
- But more recent data suggests slower growth and more deflation to come.
- Rebalancing (i.e. transition from investment-driven manufacturing power-house to consumption-driven service economy) happening slower than expected.
- Two thirds of economists polled by FT expect it to happen in December.
- Markets expect it to happen in 1Q16.
- Unusually hard call to make as US growth data sending mixed messages amid noise created by strong $ and financial market volatility.