Category: Politics

Macrosnap Modi in India?

  • Narendra Modi is India's PM and head of ruling BJP - landslide election win 2014.
  • His dominance of the party has been unchallenged since then, and he has moved to centralise power.
  • But BJP defeat in the state of Bihar this last weekend resulted in unprecedented criticism from within his own party - Modi magic is waning - he's accused of being divisive instead of consensual.
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Macrosnap Saudi oil strategy?

  • Oil price has more than halved in the last year, so as OPEC cartel leader, one would expect Saudi Arabia to cut output (and hence force the price up).
  • But instead they have chosen to maintain supply, despite the financial pain this is causing domestically.
  • Strategy is to prioritise its own long-term market share, and perhaps to inflict pain on fellow OPEC members Iran and Russia (who Saudi Arabia believes have destructive geopolitical ambitions in the Middle East).
3932

Obama blocks Keystone Canada-US Pipeline?

  • Debate and decision were largely political.
  • i.e. both the democrat-against argument (bad for environment) and conservative-for argument (creates jobs) were exaggerated according to energy & policy experts.
  • Major victory for environmental movement, gives US credibility ahead of Paris December climate talks + boosts Obama's environmental credentials during last year in office.
3912

Macrosnap this weekend’s China-Taiwan summit?

  • First meeting between leaders of Chinese Communist party and Taiwan's Kuomintang since 1945.
  • Chinese motivation: Good for international image + concerned about strength of pro-independence opposition party in Taiwan.
  • Taiwanese motivation: Current president wants to boost image domestically as opposition party looking poised to defeat him in January.
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Macrosnap current Taiwan politics?

  • These days governing Kuomintang is relatively pro-China and anti-independence.
  • Pro-independence opposition DPP has gained strength in recent years.
  • Looks like DPP could win January Presidential election, and also win majority in legislature.
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Explain the current political status of Taiwan?

  • Not strictly recognised as a country, but 22 small countries/entities have diplomatic relations with it.
  • Lost its UN seat in 1971, but it has it's own military.
  • US established diplomatic relations with China 1979, but also committed to defending Taiwan's self-governing status.
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Macrosnap Taiwan-China 1949 rift?

  • Civil war in China 1927-1950 (Communists vs. Kuomintang).
  • Mao Zedong's Communists take power in Beijing in 1949.
  • Chiang Kai-shek's Kuomintang nationalists form their own government in Taiwan - China considers it a renegade province.
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