Category: Economics
- Interest rates (a key tool of monetary policy) are a fundamental driver of where the global savings that swish around the planet are parked.
- Industrial world interest rates have been zero or close to zero for a while now - the US will be the first to raise rates.
- So already have seen a global move towards buying US$ assets, hence US$ stronger - a rate rise will reinforce this trend.
4121
- Big commodity exporter hence suffering as commodity boom has ended (due to weak demand from China).
- So most Australia macroeconomic variables looking cloudier.
- Growth slower, budget deficit up, unemployment up.
4114
- Yes - desire for order, feeling that society has gone too far to the side of liberalism & individualism.
- Roots lie in economic woes of former socialist president François Mitterrand's two terms (1981-1995).
- Amplified by recent terrorist attacks and fears of immigrants.
4102
- President Zuma seems to be messing things up.
- Recently fired respected finance minster and replaced him with an inexperienced yes man, thus putting under question the independence of the country's financial & macroeconomic policy-making institutions.
- Backdrop a trajectory corruption, cronyism, weak economic performance and sovereign credit rating downgrades.
4092
- US remains engine of global growth.
- Europe recovery gaining momentum.
- Emerging markets stay weak as China growth slows.
4067
- Yes - economic crisis continues.
- Political crisis continues too - Rousseff hugely unpopular.
- Petrobras corruption scandal moving closer to her as investigators arrest corporate, financial, judicial & political grandees.
4061
- Recession ending but growth still slow: PM Shinzo Abe’s plans (Abenomics) for reviving the economy have had mixed results.
- Minuses: Government debt remains large and a problem, so budget reform urgently required, but apparently not happening fast enough.
- Pluses: Positive consumer sentiment, exports healthy despite global wobblies as China slows.
3980
- China cutting interest rates.
- Europe and UK extending monetary easing (QE) so interest rates lower.
- US Fed is only large central bank poised to raise interest rates.
3962
- Looking pretty good.
- Growth solid and inflation trend healthy (i.e. receding fear of deflation).
- Bank of England keeping interest rates low to ensure recovery sustained.
3919
- Recession ending but growth still slow: PM Shinzo Abe’s plans (Abenomics) for reviving the economy have had mixed results.
- Negatives: Government debt remains large and a problem, so fiscal reform urgently required, but apparently not happening fast enough.
- Positives: Consumer sentiment healthy, exports solid despite global wobblies off China slowdown.
3860
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