Is Colombia in trouble because of the oil price fall?

  • No - oil price fall is damaging/painful but potential peace dividend with Farc will go a long way, economically, to offset this.
  • Currency has fallen by 45%, share price of national energy company (Ecopetrol) has halved, current account deficit will widen (oil > 50% of exports) as will budget deficits (oil accounts for 17% of govt. revenues).
  • But positive economic impact of ongoing peace talks with Farc guerrillas (aiming to end 50 years of insurgency, which often hit oil pipelines) is expected to offset economic negatives of oil-related slowdown.

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