Macrosnap of the big one?

  • The biggest single structural issue in global financial markets for 2015 is the timing of the US Fed rate rise - a fundamental driver of where the global savings that swish around the planet are parked.
  • As the US is poised to tighten monetary policy (interest rates up) and most other major countries are loosening or neutral, the US$ has soared.
  • The health of the US job market is the key determinant of timing - 1Q15 was looking strong so markets expected rate rise in June, but recent job market numbers weaker - for dinner party kudos, fine to suggest it will happen between June and Aug :)
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