UK vs. US approach to dealing with China?

  • UK: Tactical (short-term) accommodation with strategic (long-term) economic aim (securing trade & investment relationship).
  • US: Tactical & strategic balance between accommodation (e.g. economics), pressure (e.g. human rights) & resistance (e.g. to Chinese maritime claims).
  • US concerned about UK sacrificing principle for commerce and withdrawing from international geopolitical stage.
3612

Brazil blues continue?

  • Deepest recession since 1930s persists.
  • Due to end of commodities boom, fiscal mismanagement and political infighting hindering reform.
  • Political crisis over corruption at state-owned petrol company continues unabated.
3609

Macrosnap China growth?

  • Jul-Sep still robust - at annualised 6.9%
  • But more recent data suggests slower growth and more deflation to come.
  • Rebalancing (i.e. transition from investment-driven manufacturing power-house to consumption-driven service economy) happening slower than expected.
3607

What is Wahhabism?

  • Branch of Sunni Islam - described as "orthodox" and "ultraconservative".
  • Saudi Arabia's dominant faith.
  • Al Qaeda, the Taliban & ISIS draw on Wahhabism for their ideologies.
3604

When will Fed rate rise occur?

  • Two thirds of economists polled by FT expect it to happen in December.
  • Markets expect it to happen in 1Q16.
  • Unusually hard call to make as US growth data sending mixed messages amid noise created by strong $ and financial market volatility.
3590

Why are China’s FX reserves falling?

  • Down to $3.5tn from $4tn in June 2014.
  • Fall due to China supporting renminbi (i.e. buying renminbi and selling US$ when downward pressure on renminbi).
  • Downward pressure on renminbi due to capital outflows as China economy slows and foreign investors leave.
3588

Macrosnap of UK-China relationship?

  • Official UK policy of closer economic ties.
  • China PM Xi in UK this week as two Chinese groups take stakes in UK nuclear industry.
  • US critical saying might cause problems for the UK in the future (e.g. in times of global tension, UK would have a problem if China owns part of UK energy industry).
3586

What is Russia doing in Syria?

  • Ostensibly taking on ISIS (Sunni extremists).
  • But in reality seems to be backing Assad regime & Shia allies (Iran + Iraq) against Sunni rebels.
  • Putin wants Syria to remain under Russian sphere of influence.
3579

What are the 5 (overlapping) wars being fought in Syria

  • [1] Assad regime vs. the Syrian people.
  • [2] Sunni/Shia sectarian war (Iran/Iraq/Syria vs. Saudi Arabia/Qatar/Jordan/Turkey). [3] Regional war for power, i.e. Iran vs. Saudi Arabia.
  • [4] ISIS vs. everyone else (i.e. Sunni extremists vs. everyone else). [5] United States vs Russia.
3577

Macrosnap of fight for Aleppo in Syria?

  • Aleppo = Syria's largest urban centre and is mainly controlled by anti-regime rebel groups - they are being sandwiched from:
  • The south: Russia bombing has allowed advances by government forces and allied Iran-backed militias.
  • The north: ISIS advancing.
3574
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