- Government doesn't have enough dosh to pay for stuff, so will need to borrow more on 3 Nov, beyond a pre-agreed debt ceiling.
- So either the US defaults (i.e. stops paying for things like interest obligations on previous borrowings), or it raises the debt ceiling.
- Only way to avoid default is if Congress agrees to raise or suspend the debt ceiling.
- Republicans don't want to raise debt ceiling, i.e. they want smaller and not bigger government.
- So they are proposing prioritising payment of some (but not all) obligations (i.e. debt service, military and some welfare), or a raising of the debt ceiling in exchange for a reduction in social spending (Medicare, food stamps, social security).
- The Democrats simply want the debt ceiling raised.
- Might look like it (e.g. Crimea & Syria) but Russia is a lot weaker than it appears: feeble economy, few international partners/allies, and no decisive institutional influence on the international order.
- By contrast, the US stands centre-place in a global network of international institutions, alliances, military and strategic partnerships.
- Arguably, prudent foreign policy dictates managing this network with care, which, when compared to Putin's boldness, might create an impression of indecisiveness.
- Yep - looks like it.
- Post Communist countries roared in the 2000's, but, apart from Poland, all were hit hard by 2008 crisis.
- Finally signs of decent rebound, with Hungary & Romania taking the lead.
- The ability of a government to tax and spend in order to influence the economy.
- An expansionary fiscal policy means either lower tax, higher spending, or a cocktail of the two.
- A contractionary fiscal policy (" tightening") means, yep, you got it, either higher tax, lower spending, or a cocktail of the two.
- Broadly similar aims: Impose Sharia law worldwide, destroy infidels, hasten the arrival of the prophesied redeemer of Islam.
- But ISIS, unlike al Qaeda, consolidates control of territory, and then immediately sets about building the fundamental pillars of a genuine state on that territory.
- al-Qaeda, in its early form, showed little interest in/capacity for controlling territory.
- The US worries that their major ally is becoming like Holland (abandoning pursuit of power & withdrawing from the international geo-political stage).
- UK reducing military expenditure as % of GDP, absent from Ukraine Minsk negotiations, absent from Libyan crisis, and tepid response to China's handling of Hong Kong pro-democracy protesters.
- UK appears to be kowtowing to China to attract trade and investment, plus was the first G7 country to join China's rival to the US-dominated World Bank.
- Massive defeat of decade-long Conservative rule (under Harper) by Liberals (under Trudeau).
- Vote for change in policy: Away from right, to centre-left, i.e. translates as rejection of fiscal austerity.
- Vote for change in political vibe: Away from negative (US-style politics of enmity) to more positive/collaborative politics.
- Politician: Leader of Liberal Party & Canadian PM (since Oct 2015).
- Political positioning in election: Progressive, optimistic, idealistic, multicultural.
- Economic positioning in election: End austerity, start fiscal expansion.
- Main theme = Sunni vs. Shia.
- Or in other words, Saudi Arabia vs. Iran.
- Shia in north & west (backed by Iran) vs. Sunni in south (backed by Saudi Arabia, Gulf states & Pakistan).